ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll: July 2008

Below is a self-explanatory email sent to Guyon Espiner today about ONE News' opinion poll results from last night: -------------------- From: Dean Knight Sent: Monday, 21 July 2008 1:32 p.m. To: guyon.espiner@... Subject: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll: July 2008 Kia ora Guyon I'm writing to seek some clarification about the results of the recent poll as reported by you. Based on the raw party support percentages reported in your item and assumptions reported by you, the Electoral Commission's Sainte-Laguë calculator produces different results for the "seats in the House" snap-shot, namely: - National 65 - Labour 44 - Progressive 1 - NZ First 0 - Green 8 - United Future 1 - Maori 4 - ACT 1 Total 124 In contrast, your item only gives the Greens 7 seats and gives ACT one extra seat. I would be grateful if you could clarify the basis of your calculations. I suspect the differences may arise from the rounding of the party vote percentages by your polling company; however, it is not apparent from your item or material on TVNZ's website whether the differences are due to more precise computations or a mere error. Although such differences or errors may be arithmetically minor, the results of the polls are significant due to their ability to influence voters – particularly due to their ongoing currency in other media and commentators. The BSA recently upheld a complaint against 3 News for errors in reporting opinion polls (Knight v TVWorks Ltd (2008-023)). Regards --------------------