tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11340801.post112778015160779544..comments2023-10-06T16:45:25.381+13:00Comments on "Elephants and the Law" by Dean Knight: Maori electorate seatsDean Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03069298298745322597noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11340801.post-1129072495150578372005-10-12T12:14:00.000+13:002005-10-12T12:14:00.000+13:00Sorry for the repeated comments, I just re-read th...Sorry for the repeated comments, I just re-read this :)<BR/><BR/>You say: "The key point of the stats, though, is to say that our electoral processes requires parity between the number of voters in general and Maori seats - each individual electorate vote therefore has the same "value"!"<BR/><BR/>This is categorically false.<BR/><BR/>Electoral processes actually require parity in the total number of people in each electorate. The relative youth of the Maori population (42% are not old enough to vote, compare to 26% of all New Zealanders, and 23% of non-Maori) means that there are substantially fewer voters in each Maori electorate than in each general electorate.<BR/><BR/>My rather simple analysis (i.e working backward from your numbers, without the actual numbers in front of me) would suggest that there are approximately 42,000 potential voters in each general seat, and approximatelt 31,000 potential voters in each Maori seat.Graeme Edgelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03928755583921638414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11340801.post-1129071871372367472005-10-12T12:04:00.000+13:002005-10-12T12:04:00.000+13:00The point I was attempting to make was not that yo...The point I was attempting to make was not that you'd confused potential voters with "electoral population", but that you'd conflated 'number of Maori' with 'number of Maori on the Maori electoral electoral'.<BR/><BR/>Your figure of 49,000 essentially divides the number of Maori able to vote by 7. You figure of 44,000 may divide the number of non-Maori able to vote by 62.<BR/><BR/>This is wrong.<BR/><BR/>What you should do is divide the number of Maori on the Maori electoral roll by 7, to get the Maori figure, and divide the number of people (including Maori who have opted for the general roll) on the general roll by 62 to get the general figure.<BR/><BR/>I'll re-word my analogy: if only enough Maori opted for the Maori roll for there to be one Maori seat it would be unreasonable to assert that that seat represented 340,000 voters.Graeme Edgelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03928755583921638414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11340801.post-1129070109552988972005-10-12T11:35:00.000+13:002005-10-12T11:35:00.000+13:00Yes - there's a reason I became a lawyer not a mat...Yes - there's a reason I became a lawyer not a mathmetician!<BR/><BR/>David Farrar has pointed out that the (target) stats also include people who are not old enough to vote.<BR/><BR/><BR/>If I redo the stats based on people over the age of 18, I think it comes out like this:<BR/><BR/>- average voters per general seat: about 44,000<BR/>- average voters per Maori seat: about 49,000.<BR/><BR/>And, of course, not everyone registers to vote anyways.<BR/><BR/>The key point of the stats, though, is to say that our electoral processes requires parity between the number of voters in general and Maori seats - each individual electorate vote therefore has the same "value"!<BR/><BR/>DeanDean Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03069298298745322597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11340801.post-1129069414222286982005-10-12T11:23:00.000+13:002005-10-12T11:23:00.000+13:00Dean, I'll post again on some of your broader poin...Dean, I'll post again on some of your broader points, but an initial thought about one of your calculations did occur to me (my apologies that I can't analyse this using your data from the census, but I'm on a computer where I cannot open excel files).<BR/><BR/>You say that each Maori seat represents 86,000 Maori. This suggests that the Maori seats represent (86,000 x 7) 602,000 people (approximately 15% of NZ's just over 4m population).<BR/><BR/>Approximately 44% of Maori are represented on the General Electoral Roll, not the Maori Roll, so from this we can estimate that (602,000 / 0.56) there are 1.075m normally resident NZers who are of Maori descent (somewhere around a quarter of the population). You will recognise that this figure is wrong.<BR/><BR/>Let us assume (recognising that this will not happen) that after the next census, the Maori electoral option is taken and there are only enough Maori who wish to remain on the Maori Roll for there to be one seat - I do not think that it would be reasonable to say that that seat represented over 600,000 people.Graeme Edgelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03928755583921638414noreply@blogger.com